It is regularly said that Ireland's next match is the most important in its history. Sometimes it is but most often it is anything but. However Saturday's match against Zimbabwe falls firmly into the former category.

In the space of twenty four hours all four contenders for the third and fourth quarter final places in group B will be in action and the results will be significant in determining which two make the final cut.

While defeat to Zimbabwe wouldn't rule Ireland out as a win against India (highly unlikely) or Pakistan (possible) could still be enough to qualify, it would have a damaging impact on confidence. In reality no one really expected Ireland to seriously challenge the might of South Africa and to come out of that match with the net run rate not irreparably damaged was no mean achievement.

Zimbabwe has shied away from playing Ireland for over four years knowing that defeat could see the men in green overtaking them in the ODI rankings and raising even more questions about the Africans suitability for Full Member status. Therefor Saturday's match is about more than just two points. Ireland will expect to win as they would believe, with good reason, that they are a better organised team and have a higher quality batting line up.

The conditions in Hobart are unlikely to give either side an advantage and it will most likely be decided by the respective bowling attacks. Apart from a few overs at the start of each innings from John Mooney the Ireland seamers have, quite frankly, been the poorest of all fourteen competing teams. Mooney, Max Sorensen and Kevin O'Brien between them have bowled 67 overs and conceded 570 runs at an unsustainable economy rate of 8.51 runs per over.

Given that it was anticipated that seam bowling was the way to go in Australia and that it was unlikely that spin would play a significant role it is enlightening that the three spinners George Dockrell, Paul Stirling and Andy McBrine have delivered 73 overs and conceded just 362 runs at an economy rate of 4.96. Ironically when Alex Cusack was selected for the UAE game, his 10 overs resulting in 2-54, it was at the expense of McBrine who has been Ireland's most thrifty bowler. Indeed Andy-5th and Paul -7th are at the top end of the “best economy rate in an innings” table.

It certainly is not easy bowling seam in this World Cup particularly with the maximum of four fielders outside the circle and two new balls but the evidence is that the three main Ireland seamers are collectively the worst in the tournament at dealing with these difficulties. Kevin O'Brien has the worst economy rate (9.86) of any seam/pace bowler among all fourteen nations, Sorensen 5th worst at 8.33 and Mooney 7th worst at 7.15.

It says a lot about the Ireland batting and slow bowling that two of the three matches have ended in victory.
The easy excuse to explain the pace attack problems is to cite the retirement of Trent Johnston, the defection of Boyd Rankin and the injury to Tim Murtagh. The reality is that the unavailability of Johnston and Rankin was well known for over eighteen months. While the loss of Murtagh is unfortunate as his control, particularly at the top of the innings, would have been a major improvement it would be disingenuous to suggest he would have made a crucial difference to the death bowling.

As he has shown in his matches for Ireland he is dangerous at the start but his pace and predictability with the older ball has led to figures at the end which are on a par with the current figures of our three main seamers. Hence Tim now usually bowls his ten overs straight through.

Recognising the potential difficulties with the seam bowling Cricket Ireland identified three men, Craig Young, Peter Chase and Graeme McCarter as the most likely contenders to fill the gap left by Johnston and Rankin and any other possible absentee. All three spent a good part of the 2013/14 Irish winter in Australia playing grade cricket and getting specialist coaching by among others Craig McDermott. Therefor all three were on the acclimatisation tour of Australasia in October last and they showed the value of their previous winter's experience.

Young (11), Chase (9) and McCarter (7) were the three most successful pace bowlers although O'Brien and Mooney did have better economy rates- Sorensen missed the tour through injury, but the new trio had much superior strike rates. In the New Zealand A matches in Dubai in December Young and Chase both impressed while Mooney and Sorensen were smashed all over the place in the second match. While McCarter and Sorensen were cut from the final squad, Young and Chase were included and Young again looked the part in the tri-series with Afghanistan and Scotland. Chase was not selected in any of the three games that were played. Sorensen eventually replaced the injured Murtagh despite never having been in Australia unlike McCarter.

So why then has Sorensen started all three games in the World Cup instead of Young, in particular, and indeed Chase especially as they were in the original squad and Sorensen wasn't? There is nothing coming out of the camp about injuries so I have to assume that it purely a selection decision made by Phil Simmons. Perhaps the crucial factor in the decision was the influence exerted by Brett Lee in his brief pace bowling consultancy role in Sydney during the warm up matches.

During this period Lee was interviewed by Barry Chambers and the following exchange may well provide the answer to the above question.

Barry Chambers: What Bowlers impressed you here this morning?
Brett Lee: Well everyone yeah everyone. Max seemed, you know in particular, as being someone to me that, you know he's bowling extremely well. He's got good pace. But you know all the guys in general. I want to have a look over the next couple of days obviously to, you can't just come down here and sort of, obviously in a couple of hours, just try and make your assessment on one Bowler.

It seems that in a very short period Lee put Sorensen at the head of the queue despite the evidence of the previous twelve months especially in regard to Young. I have seen Sorensen, Young and Chase bowling quite a few times in the past summer and I find it strange that Lee would suggest that Sorensen has got better pace than the others or indeed the suggestion that he has better control that Young.

On the speed guns Sorensen in his three matches has been regularly in the high 120's with only a handful of balls hitting speeds in the 130's with a fastest of 133 kph. Hardly good pace and his control is well short of the necessary standard. Every other team in the Cup has at least one bowler who tops 135. Without the benefit of a speed gun I would be certain that Young is well capable of hitting the high 130's particularly with his bouncer. He also swings the new ball and is a more than useful death bowler with an accurate yorker. What is of concern is that he was quoted as saying that after some coaching from Lee he had made some adjustments and he felt that it had improved his bowling. Bizarrely he hasn't been seen in an Ireland shirt since.

Zimbabwe will also see this as a crucial game and Sean Williams, Brendan Taylor and Craig Ervine have all impressed with the bat and have aggregated almost 500 runs between them. Tendai Chatara has taken seven wickets at a lively pace and caused problems with the new ball. Sikandar Raza may only have taken one wicket but his 23 overs of off breaks has only cost him 4.73 runs per over.

If the Ireland batting clicks then they should get sufficient runs whether they bat first or are defending. However the bowlers cannot expect the batsmen to continually bail them out and it is vital that Zimbabwe is contained to no more than 250.

Young for Sorensen is probably the only change although few will be surprised if Cusack was to replace Sorensen. This is one selection that Simmons cannot afford to get wrong because if he does then all the good work from the first two matches will be undermined and it will heap the pressure on for the Pakistan encounter.